SHADOW ECONOMY IN SERBIA IN THE TIME OF COVID 19 PANDEMIC
Keywords:
shadow economy, COVID 19 pandemic, business environment, macroeconomic stability, country.Abstract
Even as a field of study, the shadow economy is a very complex phenomenon. Although primarily related to underdeveloped and developing countries, shadow economy is present in highly developed countries as well, which indicates its immense scope. The size of shadow economy in the earlier periods has varied, depending on many factors. The objective of this paper is to show the size of shadow economy in Serbia, with particular emphasis on production of goods and services mostly consumed within the households and on illicit employment in the time of COVID 19 pandemic. The fact that there are no universally accepted methods for measuring shadow economy, but a combination of various estimate methods is used instead, adds to the problem. In this paper, we will also discuss the measures that result in reduction of shadow economy. These well-known measures include improvement of business environment and macroeconomic stability, increase of registered GDP, recovery of labour market, improved inspection activities, stricter penalty policy and more efficient collecting of tax charges. Therefore, by implementing specific measures a country can have a direct impact on the size of the shadow economy, but before that the country must first consider complex and often opposed relations that might result from its decisions.
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32. Schneider, F. (2011). The Shadow Economy and Shadow Economy Labor Force: What Do We (Not) Know?. Discussion Paper No. 5769. Linz. Austria.
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34. Smith, P. (1994). Assessing the Size of the Underground Economy: the Statistics Canada Perspective. Catalogue no. 13-604-MIB no. 28. Canadian Economic Observer.
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36. Tomaš, R. (2010). Kriza i siva ekonomija u Bosni i Hercegovini. Banja Luka: Grafid.
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2. Bhattacharyya, D. K. (1999). On the economic rationale ofestimating the hidden economy. Economic Journal, 109(3), 348–359.
3. Breusch. T. (2005a). Estimating the underground economy using MIMIC models, Working Paper, Canberra, Australia, Downloaded July 4, 2021 http://econwpa.wustl.edu/eps/em/papers/0507/0507003.pdf
4. Breusch, T. (2005b). The Canadian Underground Economy: An Examination of Giles and Tedds. Canadian Tax Journal, 53(2), 367–391.
5. Chen, M. & Carré. F. (2020). The Informal Economy Revisited Examining the Past, Envisioning the Future. New York: Routledge.
6. Dašić, D. & Dašić, B. (2021). Branding of ststes and nations in (post) era Covid 19. In: Cvijanović, D., et al. (eds), 6th International Scientific Conference TOURISM CHALLENGES AMID COVID-19. Faculty of Hotel Management and Tourism in Vrnjačka Banja University of Kragujevac, 162-179, doi:10.52370/TISC21162DD
7. Dašić, D., Živković, D. & Vujić T. (2020). Rural tourism in development function of rural areas in Serbia. Economics of Agriculture, 67(3), 719-733, doi:10.5937/ekoPolj2003719D.
8. Dell’Anno, R. (2003). Estimating the shadow economy in Italy: a structural equation approach, Working Paper 2003–7. Department of Economics. University of Aarhus.
9. Dell’Anno, R. & Schneider. F. (2009). A complex approachto estimate shadow economy: the structural equation modelling. In: Faggnini M. & Looks T. (eds), Coping with the Complexity of Economics, (pp.110-130), Berlin: Springer.
10. Dell’Anno, R. & Schneider, F. (2003). The shadow economy ofItaly and other OECD countries: what do we know?. Journal of Public Finance and Public Choice, 21(2), 223–245. doi:10.1332/251569203X15668905422009
11. Diez, F., Duval, R., Maggi, C., Ji, Y., Shibata, I. & Medes Tavares M. (2020). Options to Support the Incomes of Informal Workers During COVID-19. IMF, Washington.
12. Feige, E. L. (1994). The Underground Economy and the Currency Enigma. Public Finance/Finances Publiques, 49, 119–136.
13. Fiskalni savet Republike Srbije. (2013). Ocena fiskalne strategije 2014-2016. i predlog budžeta za 2014. Godinu. Beograd.
14. Flaming, D., Hayolamak, B. & Jossart-Marcelli P. (2005). Hopeful Workers, Marginal Jobs: LA’s Off-the-Books Labor Force. Los Angeles, Economic Roundtable Research Report.
15. Fleming, M. H., Roman, J. & Farrel. G. (2000). The shadow economy. Journal of International Affairs, 53(2), 64–89.
16. ILO. (2020). Overview of the informal economy in Serbia. Downloaded July 8, 2021 https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---europe/---ro-geneva/---sro-budapest/documents/genericdocument/wcms_751317.pdf
17. IMF. (2021). World Economic Outlook, Managing Divergent Recoveries, Washington, Downloaded July 13. 2021 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021
18. Krstić, G. & Radulović, B. (2018). Siva ekonomija u Srbiji 2017 Procena obima, karakteristike učesnika i determinante. Beograd: NALED.
19. Krstić, G., Schneider, F., Arandarenko, M., Arsić, M., Radulović, B., Ranđelović, S. & Janković I. (2013). Izveštaj: Siva ekonomija u Srbiji: novi nalazi i preporuke za reforme. Beograd: FREN.
20. Loayza. V. N. & Pennings. S. (2020). Macroeconomic Policy in the Time of COVID-19: A Primer for Developing Countries, Research & Policy Briefs. From the World Bank Malaysia Hub. No. 28. World Bank Group.
21. Madžar, L. (2013). Siva ekonomija u Srbiji u svetlu tendencija u evropskim zemljama. Škola Biznisa, 3-4, 56-77.
22. Maloney, W. & Taskin T. (2020). Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity during COVID-19: A Global View. Working Paper 9242. Washington: World Bank, DC.
23. Medina, L. & Schneider, F. (2017). Shadow Economies around the World:
New Results for 158 Countries over 1991-2015. CESifo Working Paper NO. 6430. Washington, DC.
24. Mirković, Z. (2016). Siva ekonomija i pranje novca kao finansijska osnova terorizma. Doktorska disertacija. Alfa Univerzitet Beograd: Fakultet za trgovinu i bankarstvo “Janićije i Danica Karić“.
25. NALED. (2019). Nacionalni program za suzbijanje sive ekonomije u Srbiji 2019/20. Beograd. Downloaded July 15. 2021 https://naled.rs/images/preuzmite/Nacionalni_program_Akcioni_plan_SE_2019-2020.pdf
26. Nguimkeu, P. & Okou, C. (2019). Informality in The Future of Work in Africa: Harnessing the Potential of Digital Technologies for All. Washington, DC: World Bank.
27. OECD. (2002). Measuring the Non-Observed Economy - A Handbook. Paris. Downloaded July 14. 2021 https://www.oecd.org/sdd/na/1963116.pdf
28. Ohnsorge, F. & Yu S. (2021). The Long Shadov of Informality, Challenges and Policies. Washington, World Bank Group.
29. Oxford Business Group. (2020) A Covid-19 ‘new deal’ for informal workers?, Downloaded Jul 13, 2021, https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/news/covid-19-new-deal-informal-workers
30. Petrović, G., Labović, B. & Dašić, B. (2019). The Influence of Climate Elements on the Yield of Agricultural Crops in the Area of Sumadija in Serbia. Economics of Agriculture, 66(1), 173-187. doi:10.5937/ekoPolj1901173P
31. Portes, A. (1995). The Economic Sociology of Immigration: Essays on Networks, Ethnicity and Entrepreneurship. New York City: Russell Sage.
32. Schneider, F. (2011). The Shadow Economy and Shadow Economy Labor Force: What Do We (Not) Know?. Discussion Paper No. 5769. Linz. Austria.
33. Schneider, F., Buehn, A. & Montenegro, C. E. (2010). Shadow Economies All over the World. New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007. Washington D.C. USA: World Bank.
34. Smith, P. (1994). Assessing the Size of the Underground Economy: the Statistics Canada Perspective. Catalogue no. 13-604-MIB no. 28. Canadian Economic Observer.
35. Thomas, J. (1992). Informal Economic Activity. New York: Harvester.
36. Tomaš, R. (2010). Kriza i siva ekonomija u Bosni i Hercegovini. Banja Luka: Grafid.
37. World Bank Group. (2020). Ekonomski i socijalni uticaj COVID-19, Izgledi za Zapadni Balkan, Redovni ekonomski izveštaj, broj 17.
38. World Bank Group. (2021). Flagship Report. Global Economic Prospects. Washington.
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Published
2021-11-26
Issue
Section
Social, Economic and Political Flows of Crime
