GEOGRAPHIC PROFILING – ENVIRONMENTAL AND OFFENDERS’ BEHAVIOR PATTERNS OF ROBBERY CHARACTERISTICS
Keywords:
geographic information systems, robberies, distribution of crime locations, spatial and temporal patterns, socio-demographic variables of robbersAbstract
Purpose:
Geographic profiling is a crime analysis technique that uses the locations of a connected series of crime sites to identify or to predict offender patterns and to determine the most probable area of offender residence. The paper aims to highlight the significance of spatial and temporal components of crime in relation to the other components that make a criminal event with the aim to make informed decisions. It is a part of the research project Geographic profiling of robberies in the area of the City of Zagreb, Croatia. The project objective is to investigate spatial patterns and related variables influencing the criminal path of robbers.
Design /Method/Approach:
The research methodology involves collecting and processing police crime data on robbery crimes in 2018 and publicly available geographical and census data to enhance the research findings. It utilizes geospatial data processing technology to analyze crime patterns and connections between socio-demographic, spatial and temporal features of the criminal events. It also explores the movement of offenders based on the ecological criminology principles and emphasizes the significance of geostatistical methods in crime analysis.
Findings:
The distance distribution covered by perpetrators of robberies shows the presence of the distance decay effect. There is also a certain correlation between both the crime-related and the offender-related variables such as the age of the offender and the means of usage, as well as the time of day of crime incident. The frequency of occurrence of the crime in relation to the distance and temporal component indicates a trend of shorter distances in the night and morning hours, while there is a greater variation in distance during the day, which might be connected to mobility of the offenders, especially those who use public transportation.
Originality/Value:
This is the first study of geographic profiling in Croatia to date. It emphasizes the environmental and criminal behavior features of the robberies which are specific for the area of the City of Zagreb as a initial step of the model development. The research paper builds on the existing knowledge of the topic and addresses possible implications for future development of the spatial crime models in Croatia.
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